Alberta’s economy stands at a crossroads, with diversification driving its resilience amid global uncertainty. As Mark Parsons, ATB Financial’s Chief Economist, emphasized during the 2025 Economic Outlook event at the new BMO Centre in Calgary, Alberta’s ability to expand into tech, clean energy, hydrogen, and food manufacturing — while maintaining productivity in oil and gas — has positioned the province for growth. With a projected GDP growth of 2.5% in 2024 and 2.8% in 2025, Alberta’s strategy of balancing traditional industries with innovation is creating a more robust and dynamic economy.
Geopolitical Risks: The U.S. Election and its Impact on Alberta
A critical external factor that could affect Alberta’s economic future is the upcoming U.S. presidential election. Former U.S. Ambassador Bruce Heyman's remarks during the Economic Outlook event underscored the potential impact this election could have on Canada - U.S. relations, particularly concerning tariffs and trade regulations. Heyman described the 2024 election as “one of the most consequential elections” of his lifetime, warning that protectionist policies, such as tariffs proposed by Donald Trump during his first term, could severely disrupt cross-border trade.
Given that the U.S. is Alberta’s largest trading partner, shifts in U.S. economic policy, particularly regarding tariffs on Alberta’s key exports like energy, steel, and agriculture, could challenge the province’s economic stability. However, Alberta’s diversification into newer sectors, including clean energy and tech, provides a buffer against these risks, allowing businesses to pivot away from traditional dependencies.
Diversification: A Cornerstone of Economic Resilience
Mark Parsons’ work on diversification and productivity highlights the critical importance of this strategy in shielding economies from external shocks. Alberta’s ongoing shift from a focus on oil and gas toward tech, renewable energy, and food manufacturing is evidence of the province’s commitment to long-term sustainability. By expanding its economic base, Alberta is better positioned to weather the challenges posed by geopolitical tensions, inflationary pressures, and fluctuating commodity prices.
As Parsons noted, productivity in Alberta’s high-wage industries — such as oil and gas — remains essential. Still, the province is actively pursuing innovation, particularly in sectors like hydrogen energy, to ensure its relevance and leadership in the global energy transition. The tech sector has also become a critical area for investment, with Calgary attracting record-breaking venture capital in 2024, surpassing other major Canadian cities. These developments underscore Alberta’s adaptability in a rapidly evolving global economy.
Energy Transition and Economic Growth
Alberta’s role in the global energy transition cannot be overstated. With increasing attention on clean energy solutions, Alberta is emerging as a leader in hydrogen production, a key element in the global push toward sustainable energy. The province’s investments in this sector are not only driving economic growth but also positioning Alberta as a critical player in the future of energy.
Mark Parsons’ emphasis on energy and food security reflects Alberta’s broader commitment to meeting both domestic and international needs. As geopolitical tensions continue to disrupt global supply chains, Alberta’s investments in these sectors provide stability and growth potential, further insulating the province from external risks.
Collaboration: The Key to Long-Term Success
Calgary Mayor Jyoti Gondek and Brad Parry President and CEO of Calgary Economic Development, both highlighted the importance of public and private sector collaboration in driving Alberta’s economic diversification. With strategic investments from initiatives like the Opportunity Calgary Investment Fund (OCIF), Alberta is not just attracting investment but also building an ecosystem that fosters innovation and growth.
OCIF’s success in generating nearly $1 billion in investments and creating over 800 companies demonstrates Alberta’s capacity to scale new industries. These efforts are essential in maintaining investor confidence and ensuring the province’s competitiveness on the global stage.
As Mayor Gondek noted, Calgary is evolving beyond its identity as an energy capital, becoming a hub for industries like artificial intelligence, film, and fintech.
Preparing for 2025: Opportunities and Challenges
While Alberta’s economic future appears bright, challenges remain. Inflation, geopolitical risks, and potential trade disruptions from the U.S. election are factors that could influence Alberta’s trajectory. However, Alberta’s diversified economy provides a solid foundation for growth, allowing the province to capitalize on opportunities in tech, renewable energy, and food manufacturing while continuing to lead in oil and gas productivity.
Premier Danielle Smith reinforced Alberta’s economic strength during the 2025 Economic Outlook, citing the province’s low tax rates, venture capital success, and growth across various sectors as reasons for optimism. As Alberta moves into 2025, the key to maintaining this momentum will be continued collaboration, innovation, and a proactive approach to global challenges.
Conclusion: Alberta’s Path to Sustainable Growth
Alberta’s strategy of economic diversification is positioning the province for sustained growth and resilience in 2025 and beyond.
By balancing productivity in traditional sectors like oil and gas with innovation in tech and renewable energy, Alberta is creating a more dynamic economy that can weather global uncertainties.
As businesses in Western Canada prepare for the challenges of the coming year, they must remain adaptable, leveraging Alberta’s diversified economy to navigate potential disruptions from external factors, such as the U.S. election. The path forward for Alberta is clear: continued investment in emerging sectors, strategic partnerships, and a focus on long-term sustainability will ensure the province’s prosperity well into the future.
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